Shawn Agaba

Macro & Geo Economics

Economic Insights: Uganda (01/07/25) - Navigating External Challenges and Fiscal Discipline Amid Robust Growth.

Jul 1, 2025

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37 min read

Economic Insights: Uganda (01/07/25) - Navigating External Challenges and Fiscal Discipline Amid Robust Growth.

In this week’s edition of Africa & Alpha, we make a critical assessment of Uganda’s macroeconomic landscape, characterised by strong real sector performance alongside mounting fiscal pressures and cautious monetary policy. We examine Uganda’s fiscal operations, monetary policy stance, trade developments, inflation trends, output growth, sovereign yield curve dynamics, and business confidence indicators.

Shawn Agaba

Business & Industries

Economic Insights: South Africa (30/06/25)

Jun 30, 2025

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9 min read

Economic Insights: South Africa (30/06/25)

Resilience at a Crossroads. South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.

Shawn Agaba

Economic Insights: South Africa (24/06/25)

Jun 24, 2025

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25 min read

Economic Insights: South Africa (24/06/25)

South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.

Shawn Agaba

Economic Insights: America's & Europe (08/04/25)

Apr 8, 2025

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67 min read

Economic Insights: America's & Europe (08/04/25)

The past week marked a defining inflection point for developed markets, as global trade ruptures collided with an already fragile macroeconomic recovery. The imposition of sweeping tariffs by the United States has ignited retaliatory threats, fractured investor sentiment, and forced central banks to reconsider their tightening bias. While labour markets remain resilient in pockets, the broader economic narrative is tilting toward stagflation, with inflationary supply shocks clashing against weakening demand. Markets are now repricing risk, rotating out of growth and into safety, as policymakers face a narrowing window to restore confidence.

Shawn Agaba

Economic Insights: America's & Europe (17/03/25)

Mar 17, 2025

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26 min read

Economic Insights: America's & Europe (17/03/25)

Central bank policy recalibrations, escalating trade wars, and mounting corporate layoffs are converging to create an increasingly volatile investment climate. Investors are now balancing dovish monetary shifts with the detrimental impact of global trade frictions, while equity markets adjust to shifting growth expectations.

Shawn Agaba

German 10-Year Bund as a Strategic Asset in the Evolving Macro Landscape

Mar 16, 2025

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29 min read

German 10-Year Bund as a Strategic Asset in the Evolving Macro Landscape

The confluence of macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary factors makes the German 10-year Bund one of the most attractive assets in the current investment landscape. The shift away from US exceptionalism, coupled with Germany’s unprecedented fiscal expansion and the ECB’s cautious policy stance, has created a favourable environment for Bunds to serve as both a source of stability and a yield-enhancing allocation.

Shawn Agaba

Economic Insights: Americas & Europe (10/03/25)

Mar 11, 2025

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9 min read

Economic Insights: Americas & Europe (10/03/25)

Pivotal macroeconomic and market shifts have marked the past week, as developed economies grapple with a resurgent trade war, recalibrating monetary policies, and diverging growth trajectories. Investors are confronting a high-volatility regime as the US enforces aggressive protectionist measures, the Eurozone leans into fiscal expansion, and the UK navigates a complex policy landscape amid persistent inflation risks.

Shawn Agaba

UK Private Markets in 2024/2025: Navigating Labour’s Reforms, Market Dynamics, and Investment Trends

Mar 6, 2025

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10 min read

UK Private Markets in 2024/2025: Navigating Labour’s Reforms, Market Dynamics, and Investment Trends

The UK’s private markets are experiencing a transformative period, shaped by economic recovery, regulatory shifts under the Labour government, and evolving investor preferences. Private equity and credit remain at the centre of deal-making, but the landscape is increasingly complex. While deal volumes and values are improving, firms must navigate heightened scrutiny from regulators, shifts in tax policy, and growing competition between traditional syndicated lending and private credit.

Shawn Agaba

Economic Insights: Developed Markets (03/03/2025)

Mar 3, 2025

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10 min read

Economic Insights: Developed Markets (03/03/2025)

This past week, a series of pivotal macroeconomic developments across developed markets delivered significant implications for interest rate trajectories, trade policy, and sectoral investment trends. The evolving landscape presents a complex mix of opportunities and risks across asset classes, requiring a discerning approach to positioning portfolios for resilience and growth.

Shawn Agaba

Economic Insights: Developed Markets (24/02/25)

Feb 24, 2025

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7 min read

Economic Insights: Developed Markets (24/02/25)

This past week global markets faced challenges as U.S. trade tensions escalated and loan delinquencies rose. The U.K. struggles with unexpected inflation, while the EU grapples with stagnant growth. Asia-Pacific deals with China’s export controls, and Australia eases rates to boost its economy. Inflation, trade uncertainty, and shifting policies remain key risks for investors.

Shawn Agaba

Shawn Agaba

Economic Insights: Uganda (01/07/25) - Navigating External Challenges and Fiscal Discipline Amid Robust Growth.

Economic Insights: South Africa (30/06/25)

Economic Insights: South Africa (24/06/25)

Economic Insights: America's & Europe (08/04/25)

Economic Insights: America's & Europe (17/03/25)

German 10-Year Bund as a Strategic Asset in the Evolving Macro Landscape

Economic Insights: Americas & Europe (10/03/25)

UK Private Markets in 2024/2025: Navigating Labour’s Reforms, Market Dynamics, and Investment Trends

Economic Insights: Developed Markets (03/03/2025)

Economic Insights: Developed Markets (24/02/25)

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