Executive Summary

The global diamond market downturn that started in late 2022 is a permanent structural shock, not a temporary slump. It is caused by the rise of lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), changing consumer tastes, and weak demand in key markets.¹ For Botswana, which depends on diamonds, this has caused severe economic damage: GDP has contracted for years, export revenues have fallen, the fiscal deficit is now the largest in sub-Saharan Africa, and foreign reserves have been severely depleted.⁴

The government has responded with a two-part strategy. Short-term measures include budget cuts, external borrowing, monetary policy changes, and a managed depreciation of the Pula. The long-term strategy focuses on economic diversification through the new Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP), the 12th National Development Plan (NDP 12), and new laws to increase local ownership in mining.

In my assessment a slowing diamond market gives the economy a real chance to truly diversify from the ground up, without relying on diamond revenues at all. It may force creativity since the public can no longer rely on government to do a lot for them and the private sector actually has a chance of succeeding without being crowded out by the government. The slowing of the diamond markets weakens the grip of existing powerful and wealthy mining families, and the politicians that were in charge of generating and managing diamond revenues. These wealthy elites have been the only beneficiaries and as they were the only ones extracting wealth and failed to distribute effectively through to the rest of the economy and different industries to diversify. This is reflected in the wealth inequality levels that put it in the Top 10 countries with the highest wealth inequality along with neighbours like South Africa and Namibia, other mining giants.

The Current State of Botswana: A Collapsing Diamond-Based Economy

Botswana's economic crisis is the direct result of a permanent shift in the global diamond market. The current downturn is not cyclical; it is a fundamental disruption with immediate and severe consequences for Botswana's economy.

For Botswana, where diamonds account for up to 90% of exports, 25-30% of GDP, and over a third of government revenue, the shock has been catastrophic.⁴

Economic Contraction:

The economy is in a multi-year recession. After 2.7% growth in 2023, GDP contracted by an estimated 3% in 2024, with a further 1-3% contraction forecast for 2025.⁷ This is driven by a 24% fall in mining output in 2024.¹⁵ Debswana, the state-De Beers joint venture, cut its 2025 production target by 40% and is operating at 60% capacity.⁵

Fiscal Collapse:

Plummeting mineral revenues have caused the fiscal deficit to explode, projected at 7.1% to 11% of GDP for 2024/25, the widest in sub-Saharan Africa.⁵ Public debt is projected to double from 20% of GDP in 2023 to over 40% by 2027.⁵

Erosion of Buffers:

Botswana's financial reserves have been depleted. Foreign exchange reserves fell from 8.5 months of import cover in 2023 to a precarious 3.2 to 5 months by mid-2025.⁴ Government deposits at the central bank, once 50% of GDP, are now nearly exhausted.²⁰

Loss of Investor Confidence:

Moody's and S&P Global Ratings have downgraded Botswana's sovereign credit rating or outlook to negative, citing the weak diamond market and deteriorating fiscal position.⁴ This increases borrowing costs when the government is most reliant on debt.⁴

The crisis marks the end of Botswana's diamond-led development model. That model used diamond revenues to fund public services and employment but created an extreme dependency on a single commodity.¹² Unlike past downturns, a recovery to previous revenue levels is unlikely due to the permanent nature of the LGD disruption.⁵ The rapid depletion of reserves shows the model was unprepared for a structural shock of this scale.⁴

Table 1: Key Economic Indicators - Pre-Crisis vs. Current (2022-2025)

Note: Data points are compiled from multiple sources with varying reporting periods and methodologies, representing the best available estimates for the specified years.

Short-Term Interventions: Crisis Management

The Government and the Bank of Botswana (BoB) have implemented short-term measures to stabilize the economy and manage the fiscal crisis.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

The BoB's policy has been reactive and contradictory. Initially, it cut its policy rate by 50 basis points in late 2023 and early 2024 to stimulate growth.²⁵

However, a severe liquidity squeeze emerged as government revenues and deposits fell, which are the main source of liquidity for commercial banks.²⁹ In response, the BoB cut the Primary Reserve Requirement (PRR) to zero, injecting P1.8 billion into the banking system.²⁹

By mid-2025, to protect dwindling foreign exchange reserves, the government accelerated the managed depreciation of the Pula.¹⁵ The Pula subsequently fell 6.0% against the U.S. dollar and 8.6% against the South African rand.¹⁸

In October 2025, the BoB reversed course and hiked its policy rate by a massive 160 basis points to 3.5%, the first hike in over three years.³¹ The stated reason was to realign the policy rate with market lending rates, which had already risen due to the liquidity crunch.³¹ This sequence of actions, easing, injecting liquidity, devaluing, then tightening, shows a central bank reacting to a series of cascading crises.

Fiscal Consolidation and Emergency Measures

The government has implemented severe austerity and emergency measures.

Budget Cuts:

In August 2024, the government cut the recurrent budget by 4% and the development budget by 22%.³³ The 2025/2026 budget formalized this, slashing the development budget by 21% (a P6.32 billion reduction).³⁴

External Borrowing:

With domestic funds gone, Botswana has secured over $500 million in loans from the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the OPEC Fund.⁵

Public Health Emergency:

On August 25, 2025, the President declared a national public health emergency due to a critical shortage of medicines in public hospitals.⁸ The government could not pay its suppliers, with debts over 1 billion pula.⁹ The response included releasing P250 million and placing medical supply procurement under the Botswana Defence Force's oversight.⁹

Revenue Enhancement

The government has also moved to increase revenue.

Tax Increases:

The 2025/2026 budget proposed a 1.5 percentage point increase in both corporate income tax (to 23.5%) and the top personal income tax rate (to 26.5%), effective July 1, 2025.³⁴

Tax Administration Modernization:

The Botswana Unified Revenue Service (BURS) is implementing several initiatives:

• Levying Value Added Tax (VAT) on digital services by September 2025.⁴⁰

• Implementing mandatory electronic VAT invoicing by March 2026.³⁴

• Introducing a digital track and trace system for goods like alcohol and tobacco by September 2025.³⁴

These measures show a government trying to manage a recession while imposing austerity, leading to social strain and policy incoherence.

Long-Term Strategy: Diversification

The government has also launched long-term reforms to reduce the economy's dependence on diamonds.

Recalibrating the Diamond Partnership

The government renegotiated its partnership with De Beers, finalizing new agreements in February 2025 that extend mining licenses for 25 years and create a new 10-year sales agreement.³⁷

The state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) will now receive a larger share of rough diamond production, increasing from 25% to 50% over the 10-year term.⁴² The goal is to increase Botswana's presence in the diamond value chain.

The new Diamonds for Development Fund (DfDF) was also established. De Beers committed an initial BWP 1 billion (approx. $75 million), with potential future contributions up to BWP 10 billion.⁴² The fund will support diversification projects in sectors like agriculture, renewable energy, and tourism.⁴⁶ This strategy is contradictory: it seeks to diversify away from diamonds while increasing the state's direct exposure to the volatile rough diamond market.

Encouraging Local Enterpreneurship

The government is also focused on citizen economic empowerment.

The Chema Chema Fund:

Introduced in 2024 with P200-P500 million, this fund provides affordable loans to the informal sector, targeting youth and women.⁴⁴ Initial demand was high, but disbursements were low before the fund was paused for review in late 2024.⁵⁰

New 24% Local Ownership Rule in Mining:

Implemented on October 1, 2025, this amendment to the Mines and Minerals Act requires that for any new mining concession, a 24% stake must be sold to local private investors if the government declines its own option.⁵² The rule applies only to new concessions, not existing ones, and aims to increase citizen participation in mineral wealth.⁵²

The Plan for a New Economy: BETP and NDP 12

The government's long-term vision is outlined in two main initiatives.

Botswana Economic Transformation Programme (BETP):

Launched in mid-2025, the BETP is a strategic framework to shift Botswana to a private-sector-led economy driven by services, exports, and innovation.⁵⁶ Its core mechanism is a series of "Economic Transformation Labs."

BETP Labs:

These four-week workshops began in August 2025, bringing together public and private stakeholders to fast-track high-impact projects and remove regulatory barriers.⁵⁸ The labs focus on seven priority sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism.⁵⁸

National Development Plan 12 (NDP 12):

This five-year plan (2025-2030) will implement the strategies from the BETP.⁴⁷ With a proposed budget of P388 billion (approx. $27 billion), NDP 12 prioritizes infrastructure investment and relies heavily on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) for funding.⁴⁷ The plan is currently before Parliament.⁴⁷

Evaluating Policy Effectiveness and Implementation Risks

The government's strategy suffers from several critical weaknesses that could undermine its effectiveness over the next five years.

Policy Contradictions:

The most significant weakness is the internal conflict within the strategy itself. The government is pursuing a "Diversification Paradox": it is launching ambitious programs like the BETP to move the economy away from diamonds, while simultaneously implementing policies, such as increasing the ODC's share of rough diamonds and creating the diamond-funded DfDF, that deepen the state's financial and strategic exposure to the declining diamond industry.⁴² This sends mixed signals and reflects a reluctance to fully commit to a post-diamond future. Furthermore, the central bank is caught in a "Monetary Policy Trap," forced into a series of contradictory moves (easing, then tightening; injecting liquidity while fiscal policy drains it) that reveal a loss of policy autonomy in the face of an overwhelming fiscal crisis.²⁹

Implementation Gaps:

Botswana has a long history of well-crafted national plans that have faltered at the implementation stage.⁷⁰ The success of the ambitious BETP and NDP 12 hinges on the government's ability to translate the outputs of the "Labs" into bankable projects and, crucially, to dismantle the entrenched bureaucracy that has historically stifled private sector initiative. Without a radical improvement in state capacity and a genuine commitment to reducing red tape, these new blueprints risk becoming another set of shelved documents.

Governance and Mismanagement Risks:

The crisis at the Central Medical Stores, which exposed inefficiency and allegations of corruption, serves as a stark warning about the state's capacity to manage public resources effectively, especially under pressure.³⁷ This raises concerns about the administration of the large-scale investment programs envisioned in NDP 12 and the various new development funds. Similarly, while the 24% local ownership rule in mining is intended for broad-based empowerment, without a transparent and robust framework for identifying and financing local partners, it risks benefiting a small, politically connected elite, a phenomenon known as elite capture.⁵³

The gap between the government's aspirational vision of achieving high-income status and the immediate reality of a contracting economy, rising poverty, and failing public services is vast.⁷ Closing this gap will require a level of policy discipline, implementation capacity, and political courage that will be severely tested in the coming years.

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