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Economy & Industries
Analysing the overall health of economies globally. Making sense of ever-changing industry dynamics and trends.
Economic Insights: Uganda (01/07/25) - Navigating External Challenges and Fiscal Discipline Amid Robust Growth.
In this week’s edition of Africa & Alpha, we make a critical assessment of Uganda’s macroeconomic landscape, characterised by strong real sector performance alongside mounting fiscal pressures and cautious monetary policy. We examine Uganda’s fiscal operations, monetary policy stance, trade developments, inflation trends, output growth, sovereign yield curve dynamics, and business confidence indicators.
Economic Insights: Nigeria (01/07/25)
Nigeria's economy showed mixed signals in Q1 2025. GDP growth reached 3.40% in 2024, with projections for 2025 at 3.70%. Nigeria’s trade surplus contrasts with South Africa’s Q1 2025 deficit (-$3.1bn), but trails Egypt’s export-led recovery (15% YoY growth). Continent-wide, digitalization and non-oil exports remain critical for resilience against commodity shocks
Economic Insights: South Africa (30/06/25)
Resilience at a Crossroads. South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.
Economic Insights: South Africa (24/06/25)
South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.
Economic Insights: America's & Europe (08/04/25)
The past week marked a defining inflection point for developed markets, as global trade ruptures collided with an already fragile macroeconomic recovery. The imposition of sweeping tariffs by the United States has ignited retaliatory threats, fractured investor sentiment, and forced central banks to reconsider their tightening bias. While labour markets remain resilient in pockets, the broader economic narrative is tilting toward stagflation, with inflationary supply shocks clashing against weakening demand. Markets are now repricing risk, rotating out of growth and into safety, as policymakers face a narrowing window to restore confidence.
Economic Insights: Investing in African Stock Markets (24/03/25)
This article discusses African stock markets, focusing on low IPO activity due to regulatory, market structure, and ecosystem issues. We emphasise the growth potential of African markets, driven by factors like a rising middle class, improved governance, and technological advancements such as mobile money. To boost IPO activity, solutions include attracting domestic retail investors, reducing IPO compliance costs, improving liquidity, and enhancing transparency and reporting standards. We suggest technological leapfrogging to overcome barriers and build stronger, more dynamic financial markets across Africa.
Economic Insights: America's & Europe (17/03/25)
Central bank policy recalibrations, escalating trade wars, and mounting corporate layoffs are converging to create an increasingly volatile investment climate. Investors are now balancing dovish monetary shifts with the detrimental impact of global trade frictions, while equity markets adjust to shifting growth expectations.
Economic Insights: Africa (17/03/25)
South Africa's Budget Speech announced a 0.5% increase in VAT and over R1 Trillion allocated for public infrastructure over the next 3 years. Botswana's economic outlook is downgraded by S&P Global, but Credit Ratings are maintained at 'BBB+’ in the long term and ‘A-2' in the short-term for both foreign and domestic currency.
Economic Insights: Africa (11/03/25)
Zimbabwe's gold-backed ZiG currency continues to face challenges, including a 40% devaluation by September 2024 and rising inflation. In Ghana, the government plans to implement their 'shock therapy' which sees significant spending cuts and tax reforms to address budget deficits, the Ghana PMI rose to 50.5 in February 2025, signalling growth in new business, though GDP growth slowed to 3.6% in Q4 2024. Kenya's economy showed marginal growth, with inflation rising to 3.5% in February 2025, driven by higher food and transport costs.
Economic Insights: Americas & Europe (10/03/25)
Pivotal macroeconomic and market shifts have marked the past week, as developed economies grapple with a resurgent trade war, recalibrating monetary policies, and diverging growth trajectories. Investors are confronting a high-volatility regime as the US enforces aggressive protectionist measures, the Eurozone leans into fiscal expansion, and the UK navigates a complex policy landscape amid persistent inflation risks.
Economic Insights: Africa (04/03/25)
In this week we take a deeper dive into the 2 largest economies of Africa. South Africa narrowly avoided recession with 0.6% Q4 growth, while Nigeria's economy accelerated to 3.84% in Q4 2024. Despite challenges like inflation and debt, Africa's overall growth is projected to strengthen, driven by services and regional integration. Opportunities in minerals and trade offer potential for sustained growth amidst global uncertainties.