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Economy & Industries
Analysing the overall health of economies globally. Making sense of ever-changing industry dynamics and trends.
Economic Insights: America's & Europe (08/04/25)
The past week marked a defining inflection point for developed markets, as global trade ruptures collided with an already fragile macroeconomic recovery. The imposition of sweeping tariffs by the United States has ignited retaliatory threats, fractured investor sentiment, and forced central banks to reconsider their tightening bias. While labour markets remain resilient in pockets, the broader economic narrative is tilting toward stagflation, with inflationary supply shocks clashing against weakening demand. Markets are now repricing risk, rotating out of growth and into safety, as policymakers face a narrowing window to restore confidence.
Economic Insights: Investing in African Stock Markets (24/03/25)
This article discusses African stock markets, focusing on low IPO activity due to regulatory, market structure, and ecosystem issues. We emphasise the growth potential of African markets, driven by factors like a rising middle class, improved governance, and technological advancements such as mobile money. To boost IPO activity, solutions include attracting domestic retail investors, reducing IPO compliance costs, improving liquidity, and enhancing transparency and reporting standards. We suggest technological leapfrogging to overcome barriers and build stronger, more dynamic financial markets across Africa.
Economic Insights: America's & Europe (17/03/25)
Central bank policy recalibrations, escalating trade wars, and mounting corporate layoffs are converging to create an increasingly volatile investment climate. Investors are now balancing dovish monetary shifts with the detrimental impact of global trade frictions, while equity markets adjust to shifting growth expectations.
Economic Insights: Africa (17/03/25)
South Africa's Budget Speech announced a 0.5% increase in VAT and over R1 Trillion allocated for public infrastructure over the next 3 years. Botswana's economic outlook is downgraded by S&P Global, but Credit Ratings are maintained at 'BBB+’ in the long term and ‘A-2' in the short-term for both foreign and domestic currency.
Economic Insights: Africa (11/03/25)
Zimbabwe's gold-backed ZiG currency continues to face challenges, including a 40% devaluation by September 2024 and rising inflation. In Ghana, the government plans to implement their 'shock therapy' which sees significant spending cuts and tax reforms to address budget deficits, the Ghana PMI rose to 50.5 in February 2025, signalling growth in new business, though GDP growth slowed to 3.6% in Q4 2024. Kenya's economy showed marginal growth, with inflation rising to 3.5% in February 2025, driven by higher food and transport costs.
Economic Insights: Americas & Europe (10/03/25)
Pivotal macroeconomic and market shifts have marked the past week, as developed economies grapple with a resurgent trade war, recalibrating monetary policies, and diverging growth trajectories. Investors are confronting a high-volatility regime as the US enforces aggressive protectionist measures, the Eurozone leans into fiscal expansion, and the UK navigates a complex policy landscape amid persistent inflation risks.
Economic Insights: Africa (04/03/25)
In this week we take a deeper dive into the 2 largest economies of Africa. South Africa narrowly avoided recession with 0.6% Q4 growth, while Nigeria's economy accelerated to 3.84% in Q4 2024. Despite challenges like inflation and debt, Africa's overall growth is projected to strengthen, driven by services and regional integration. Opportunities in minerals and trade offer potential for sustained growth amidst global uncertainties.
Economic Insights: Developed Markets (03/03/2025)
This past week, a series of pivotal macroeconomic developments across developed markets delivered significant implications for interest rate trajectories, trade policy, and sectoral investment trends. The evolving landscape presents a complex mix of opportunities and risks across asset classes, requiring a discerning approach to positioning portfolios for resilience and growth.
Economic Insights: Africa (24/02/25)
Africa's economic outlook remains mixed as 2025 unfolds. South Africa faces fiscal uncertainty with the delayed Budget Speech and power crises. Nigeria’s central bank held rates at 27.5% amid stabilizing inflation, while Botswana remains in recession, banking on a diamond industry recovery. Uganda's private sector contracted for the first time in nearly a year due to weak demand and rising costs. Ethiopia pushes forward with economic liberalization, launching its first stock market in decades. Despite inflation and external risks, Africa’s projected 4.3% growth in 2025 presents cautious optimism, with long-term investment potential.
Economic Insights: Developed Markets (24/02/25)
This past week global markets faced challenges as U.S. trade tensions escalated and loan delinquencies rose. The U.K. struggles with unexpected inflation, while the EU grapples with stagnant growth. Asia-Pacific deals with China’s export controls, and Australia eases rates to boost its economy. Inflation, trade uncertainty, and shifting policies remain key risks for investors.
Should Botswana Increase Minimum Wage to P4000?
Botswana’s new govt. proposed minimum wage increase to P4,000 represents a 203% jump from the current rate of P1,321 for general workers. While the move could significantly improve living standards and reduce income inequality in one of the world’s most unequal societies, it also poses risks to employment, business sustainability, and economic competitiveness.
Will 2025 Be South Africa’s Economic Turning Point?
A renewed political coalition and improving business confidence signal hope for South Africa's economy in 2025. However, challenges such as fiscal pressures, infrastructure deficits, and high unemployment underscore the need for sustained reforms and prudent governance to achieve meaningful growth.