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Economic Insights: Uganda (01/07/25) - Navigating External Challenges and Fiscal Discipline Amid Robust Growth.
In this week’s edition of Africa & Alpha, we make a critical assessment of Uganda’s macroeconomic landscape, characterised by strong real sector performance alongside mounting fiscal pressures and cautious monetary policy. We examine Uganda’s fiscal operations, monetary policy stance, trade developments, inflation trends, output growth, sovereign yield curve dynamics, and business confidence indicators.
Economic Insights: Nigeria (01/07/25)
Nigeria's economy showed mixed signals in Q1 2025. GDP growth reached 3.40% in 2024, with projections for 2025 at 3.70%. Nigeria’s trade surplus contrasts with South Africa’s Q1 2025 deficit (-$3.1bn), but trails Egypt’s export-led recovery (15% YoY growth). Continent-wide, digitalization and non-oil exports remain critical for resilience against commodity shocks
Economic Insights: South Africa (30/06/25)
Resilience at a Crossroads. South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.
Articles
Economic Insights: Uganda (01/07/25) - Navigating External Challenges and Fiscal Discipline Amid Robust Growth.
In this week’s edition of Africa & Alpha, we make a critical assessment of Uganda’s macroeconomic landscape, characterised by strong real sector performance alongside mounting fiscal pressures and cautious monetary policy. We examine Uganda’s fiscal operations, monetary policy stance, trade developments, inflation trends, output growth, sovereign yield curve dynamics, and business confidence indicators.
Economic Insights: Nigeria (01/07/25)
Nigeria's economy showed mixed signals in Q1 2025. GDP growth reached 3.40% in 2024, with projections for 2025 at 3.70%. Nigeria’s trade surplus contrasts with South Africa’s Q1 2025 deficit (-$3.1bn), but trails Egypt’s export-led recovery (15% YoY growth). Continent-wide, digitalization and non-oil exports remain critical for resilience against commodity shocks
Economic Insights: South Africa (30/06/25)
Resilience at a Crossroads. South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.
Economic Insights: South Africa (24/06/25)
South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.
Economic Insights: America's & Europe (08/04/25)
The past week marked a defining inflection point for developed markets, as global trade ruptures collided with an already fragile macroeconomic recovery. The imposition of sweeping tariffs by the United States has ignited retaliatory threats, fractured investor sentiment, and forced central banks to reconsider their tightening bias. While labour markets remain resilient in pockets, the broader economic narrative is tilting toward stagflation, with inflationary supply shocks clashing against weakening demand. Markets are now repricing risk, rotating out of growth and into safety, as policymakers face a narrowing window to restore confidence.
Economic Insights: Investing in African Stock Markets (24/03/25)
This article discusses African stock markets, focusing on low IPO activity due to regulatory, market structure, and ecosystem issues. We emphasise the growth potential of African markets, driven by factors like a rising middle class, improved governance, and technological advancements such as mobile money. To boost IPO activity, solutions include attracting domestic retail investors, reducing IPO compliance costs, improving liquidity, and enhancing transparency and reporting standards. We suggest technological leapfrogging to overcome barriers and build stronger, more dynamic financial markets across Africa.
Is it possible to start investing in your early 20s?
Even as young adults in their 20s, are faced with low disposable incomes and inflation, starting small in investing has never been easier. We propose a more proactive approach to managing personal finances that prioritizes investing. The simple adjustment is to start treating investments as a non-negotiable part of financial planning. In this article we emphasise the importance of starting early, cultivating good financial habits, and taking advantage of accessible investment platforms to set a foundation for long-term financial growth.
Economic Insights: America's & Europe (17/03/25)
Central bank policy recalibrations, escalating trade wars, and mounting corporate layoffs are converging to create an increasingly volatile investment climate. Investors are now balancing dovish monetary shifts with the detrimental impact of global trade frictions, while equity markets adjust to shifting growth expectations.
Economic Insights: Africa (17/03/25)
South Africa's Budget Speech announced a 0.5% increase in VAT and over R1 Trillion allocated for public infrastructure over the next 3 years. Botswana's economic outlook is downgraded by S&P Global, but Credit Ratings are maintained at 'BBB+’ in the long term and ‘A-2' in the short-term for both foreign and domestic currency.
German 10-Year Bund as a Strategic Asset in the Evolving Macro Landscape
The confluence of macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary factors makes the German 10-year Bund one of the most attractive assets in the current investment landscape. The shift away from US exceptionalism, coupled with Germany’s unprecedented fiscal expansion and the ECB’s cautious policy stance, has created a favourable environment for Bunds to serve as both a source of stability and a yield-enhancing allocation.
Economic Insights: Africa (11/03/25)
Zimbabwe's gold-backed ZiG currency continues to face challenges, including a 40% devaluation by September 2024 and rising inflation. In Ghana, the government plans to implement their 'shock therapy' which sees significant spending cuts and tax reforms to address budget deficits, the Ghana PMI rose to 50.5 in February 2025, signalling growth in new business, though GDP growth slowed to 3.6% in Q4 2024. Kenya's economy showed marginal growth, with inflation rising to 3.5% in February 2025, driven by higher food and transport costs.